3 Smart Money Invests $55.7K to Bet "US-Iran won't meet diplomatically by June 2026"

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 3 clever money have put in $55.7k on "no" for the question "Will the US and Iran hold a diplomatic meeting before June 2026?", with an average buy-in probability of 65.5% and the current probability of "yes" at 29.5%.

denizz has put in $32.1k, with the top related category in this market being politics, with a net profit of $1.3M. His win rate in this category, out of 836 settled trades, is 567/836 (68%), with 179 trades where the buy-in price was less than $0.8 and the sell-out price was greater than $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601-$0.75), the median of his historical investment amount is $5.6k.
0xecaa8806 has put in $15.6k, with the top related category in this market being politics, with a net profit of $306k. His win rate in this category, out of 527 settled trades, is 308/527 (58%), with 238 trades where the buy-in price was less than $0.8 and the sell-out price was greater than $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601-$0.75), the median of his historical investment amount is $5.1k.
0xd44e974a has put in $8.0k, with the top related category in this market being geopolitics, with a net profit of $225k. His win rate in this category, out of 595 settled trades, is 419/595 (70%), with 245 trades where the buy-in price was less than $0.8 and the sell-out price was greater than $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.401-$0.55), the median of his historical investment amount is $610, and this investment is 13.1 times of that median amount.

Iran's latest ceasefire proposal emphasizes ending the war comprehensively first and requests the US to suspend sanctions on Iran's oil sales through OFAC within 30 days, while also ending the naval blockade on Iran. The proposal also mentions that Iran will manage the Strait of Hormuz once the US makes specific commitments.

On the 11th, after receiving Iran's latest ceasefire proposal delivered via Pakistan, Trump promptly rejected Iran's response to the US peace proposal, calling it "completely unacceptable."

Note: Based on his past trading behavior, this trader is not betting on whether the event will actually occur; there is a strategy of taking profit or stop-loss at a certain point after opening a position.

Accounts:
0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73
0xecaa8806a9a05049d7d5260a33dc924220e377a9
0xd44e974a3edb232aa4aedbdcc59792b76a5f67e2

Total investment: $55.7k
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