According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 2 accounts have placed a $5900 bet on "Did the US obtain Iranian enriched uranium before June?", and the current probability of "Yes" is 17.5%.
Out of these 2 accounts, 0x83e994ba has an Iran block win rate of 81%, with a total profit of $3000; 0x38692cea has an Iran block win rate of 72%, with a total profit of $103,000.
On April 1st, The Washington Post revealed that the US military had briefed the president on a plan to deploy ground forces into Iran, with the primary objective of seizing nearly 1000 pounds of highly enriched uranium. Specific details of the plan include transporting excavation equipment to the target location and constructing a temporary airstrip to evacuate the relevant radioactive materials.
Currently, the Pentagon has mobilized over 5000 Marines, Amphibious Readiness Group, and the 82nd Airborne Division in the surrounding area for a forward deployment in preparation for a potential cross-border operation to seize nuclear material.
It is important to note that if the US executive branch were to launch a cross-border ground assault to seize material without formal congressional authorization, they would still face legal restrictions such as the War Powers Resolution's procedures for domestic use of force.
Note: Based on their historical trading patterns, the trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of the event but may engage in profit-taking and stop-loss behaviors after opening positions at a certain point in time.
Accounts:
0x83e994baca3ba1d6f5d403c6e832dbdc69d09f08;
0x38692cead875c0cd862052efbff8f6add7310e3c.
