According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the Polymarket prediction market, 3 smart money have invested $15,700 in "Will traffic in the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by July?" with the current probability of "Yes" being 62.0%.
Out of these 3 smart money, 0x8072e357 has a win rate of 62% in the Iran segment, with a total profit of $19,000; Car has a 67% win rate in the geopolitics segment, with a total profit of $557,000; Huludubu has a 70% win rate in the geopolitics segment, with a total profit of $191,000.
Today, while Trump ordered the US military to take a tougher stance on Iranian boats, he also announced that the mine-clearing operation in the Strait of Hormuz would be "tripled," with the US preparing for future navigable conditions to be restored.
The Strait of Hormuz carries approximately 20% of the world's liquid oil consumption flow, as well as about 20% of global LNG supply. Disruption due to the Iran conflict and the disruption of the Hormuz shipping route is driving up US corporate input and output prices. Supply delays are exacerbating the situation, leading economists to predict accelerated inflation, making it harder for the Fed to cut rates.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event will actually occur; there is a behavior of taking profit or stop-loss at a certain point after opening a position.
Accounts:
0x8072e357dcfed151a7804026b70a4364dd9a0ef3;
0x7c3db723f1d4d8cb9c550095203b686cb11e5c6b;
0xe7387473b067235436884d16799777cf279edf65.
