Piyasa artık Trump'ın sözlü ateşkesine güvenmiyor, birkaç ABD-İran savaşı olayının olasılığı değişmedi.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, Trump has recently frequently raised expectations of US-Iran talks and claimed to have been in contact with the Iranian side. He once again claimed today that the Iranian President has requested a ceasefire and was immediately slapped in the face by the Iranian side. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is "firmly in their hands" and that they "will not open up to the enemies of this country due to the absurd performance of the US president."

Multiple prediction markets show that Trump's recent verbal statements no longer affect market consensus, including:

The probability of a ceasefire between the US and Iran by the end of April remains at 38%, still at a recent low, and the market does not expect a rapid ceasefire to make progress;

The probability of the Strait of Hormuz being open to navigation by the end of April has been continuously decreasing, now reported at 20%, also at recent lows, with the strait firmly controlled by Iran and used as an economic warfare weapon against the US;

The probability of US ground troops entering Iran by the end of the month remains high, now at 55%, as the US military continues to deploy troops to the Middle East.