According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, 5 smart money accounts have collectively put in $65.4k to buy "Yes" on "Will the US military enter Iran by May," with the current probability of "Yes" standing at 51%.
Trump is seeking a one-month ceasefire and has presented Tehran with a "15-point plan," which has led to short-term market bets suggesting a potential easing of tensions around an Iran war that has been building for weeks. Interestingly, following this news, the probabilities of both a US-Iran ceasefire before April and US military entry into Iran before April have increased on Polymarket.
Today, The Washington Post revealed that the Pentagon has ordered around 2,000 82nd Airborne Division paratroopers to the Middle East, including the division's first brigade combat team and its headquarters unit, bringing the total US troops in the region to around 50,000.
Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader may not be betting on the actual outcome of events but instead engaging in profit-taking and stop-loss actions at certain points after opening positions.
Accounts:
0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7
0x38692cead875c0cd862052efbff8f6add7310e3c
0xea7957606f259bcba522a4681494555547a7a9cc
0x60a92c8620846d81f5ea17b0564e0d4b7c545a71
0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3
Total Invested: $65.4k
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