According to PolyBeats monitoring, the edgeX official Meme token MARU is now openly tradable on their platform, a move that once caused the probability of the "Will EdgeX launch in 2025" prediction on Polymarket to skyrocket to 99.5%. However, as users discovered that the token could only be traded within the platform and not withdrawn to the chain, the probability subsequently plummeted, reaching a low of 13.5%. Analysis revealed that there were 4 accounts created in December that bought the "Yes" position at the peak, currently facing substantial unrealized losses and opting to hold in full.
Holder analysis shows that the four accounts, SUNSETDREAM, medallionstallion, shatoo, and mindbuilder, were all created in December 2025, with the sole transaction being a bet on edgeX launching in 2025. Among them, SUNSETDREAM bought 4380 positions at an average price of 91c, medallionstallion bought 6000 positions at 73c. The other two accounts bought at average prices of 68c and 75c, costs that are much higher than the current 46c.
With only a day and a half left until the market settles, these four accounts collectively hold over 14,000 "Yes" positions, all currently in a loss position with no sell transactions. MARU has already met the prediction market's criteria for "launch" and "public trade" and only needs to enable withdrawals in the final day and a half to settle the result as "Yes". The Chinese official TG group member for edgeX today stated that MARU is expected to enable withdrawals today or tomorrow.
